January is Now “Returnuary”

Holiday gift returns are no longer an afterthought to the shopping season. They are a full-fledged operational "second peak" for retailers and carriers, and a moment when consumers can either recover value smoothly or get surprised by fine print. According to Adobe Analytics, the post-Christmas return rush typically peaks in the days immediately after the holiday with returns jumping 25%-35% when compared with earlier in the month. The month after Christmas has even earned its own nickname: "Returnuary," a shorthand for the post-holiday surge of returns and exchanges that floods store counters and shipping networks throughout January.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects total retail returns will reach about $849.9 billion for the year 2025, and estimates that 19.3% of online sales will be returned. Within the holiday window specifically, NRF reported that retailers expect roughly 17% of holiday sales to come back. The Associated Press noted that categories like clothing and footwear tend to have higher return rates because an item's fit is so difficult to gauge online.

For consumers, "free and easy" returns are becoming less universal, especially for mail-in or online returns. NRF's research shows how influential return convenience remains, with 82% of consumers saying that free returns are an important consideration when shopping online. Meanwhile, retailers are trying to control the costs of reverse logistics and fraud. In practice, that can translate into shorter return windows for certain categories (notably electronics), more requirements to return items in resalable condition, and increased use of return shipping fees or restocking fees depending on the merchant and the item type. Even if a return is free, you may have paid for it in the original price of the item. "Refurbishment, inspection, repackaging, all of these things get factored into the retail price," said Christopher Faires, assistant professor of logistics and supply chain management at Georgia Southern University.

Return policy tightening is happening because returns are expensive, and they are not always cleanly reversible. NRF notes that return fraud remains a persistent problem, with an estimated 9% of all returns considered fraudulent. Retailers have reported issues such as "empty box" schemes and counterfeit-item swaps. David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns (a UPS company), has described return policies as a "strategic touchpoint" that shapes how people - especially younger consumers - shop, and argues retailers are being pushed to modernize reverse logistics to protect operations while keeping customers satisfied.

From a practical standpoint, the smoothest return is usually the one that is prepared before you ever leave the house. Take the item itself in the best possible condition: unused when required, tags attached when applicable, and with original packaging for products that need it (common with electronics, small appliances, and anything with serial numbers). Bring proof of purchase in the form the retailer recognizes, like a paper receipt, a gift receipt, an emailed receipt, or an order confirmation page in the retailer app. If the gift was purchased online, the order number and the email or phone number tied to the purchase can be as important as the receipt itself. Many retailers also require a government-issued photo ID for no-receipt returns or for returns that trigger fraud-prevention systems.

Consumers should also expect that the refund method may follow the original payment method, even if you are not the original buyer. In many cases, if you return a gift without a gift receipt, the merchant may offer store credit instead of cash back, and many stores will only refund at the lowest recent selling price. Time also matters. Return windows are often extended for holiday purchases, but the extension is not guaranteed across all categories, brands, or marketplace/third-party items, and exceptions are common. The safest approach is to check the retailer's holiday return cutoff date as soon as you know you will return something, and to confirm whether "final sale," clearance, opened electronics, and warranty-registered items have different return rules.

Ultimately, holiday returns are best treated like a short, time-bound project: confirm the policy, gather the documentation, return in the condition required, and choose the channel (in-store versus mail) that minimizes fees and delays. "Returnuary" is real, and the data shows it is massive. But consumers who plan for the new realities of returns can still come out of the season with value recovered instead of frustration.