Romance Meets Retail

Valentine's Day sits at an unusual intersection of myth, marketing, and modern consumer behavior. It's a holiday that can feel intimate, yet it reliably produces one of the biggest seasonal spending surges of the year in the United States. The reason is simple: Valentine's Day has evolved into a widely shared cultural script for expressing affection, and in a consumer economy, scripts tend to come with purchase categories and price expectations.

Valentine's Day is named for St. Valentine, but the historical record is messy, with multiple Valentines and layered traditions. In medieval Europe, February 14 picked up romantic symbolism through literature; Geoffrey Chaucer helped cement the date as a day associated with courtship and pairing, tying it to the belief that birds began mating in mid-February. Over centuries, the holiday moved from legend and poetry into paper goods, confectionery, floristry, and dining - industries that learned to package emotion into purchasable "tokens" of love.

In 2026, the scale is enormous. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects U.S. Valentine's Day spending will reach a record $29.1 billion, with shoppers budgeting an average of $199.78. NRF's Katherine Cullen summarizes the sentiment behind those numbers: "Valentine's Day is a cherished holiday that resonates with many Americans," pointing to broad participation even amid other financial pressures. Importantly, this is not just a couples' holiday anymore. NRF reports 55% of consumers plan to celebrate, and the spending is spread across partners, family, friends, classmates, coworkers, and even pets. That widening definition matters economically because it expands both the number of recipients and the number of "acceptable" gift types. NRF finds that among celebrators, 83% will buy for a significant other, but 58% will also buy for family members, 33% for friends, 27% for children's classmates and teachers, 21% for coworkers, and 35% for pets. 

So what are Americans buying? The "typical" Valentine's Day gift categories include candy as the most popular gift (planned by 56% of consumers), followed by flowers (41%), greeting cards (41%), an evening out (39%), and jewelry (25%). Yet popularity and dollars are not the same thing. On a total-spend basis, NRF expects the most money to go to jewelry, followed by evenings out, clothing, and flowers. These traditions persist because they function as fast, legible signals. Candy is sweet, shareable, and priced for almost any budget. Flowers, especially red roses, are a visual shorthand for romance, and their perishability can actually help as their fleeting beauty reinforces the idea of a moment set apart from everyday life. Greeting cards do a specific job that the economy can't easily replicate - they outsource emotional phrasing. Hallmark says about 145 million Valentine's Day cards are exchanged industry-wide annually (excluding many classroom valentines), making it the second-largest card-exchange holiday. Even in a digital era, the physical card remains one of the most durable Valentine's rituals because it's relatively inexpensive, easy to personalize, and culturally expected in many relationships, especially when paired with candy or flowers.

Spending, however, is not evenly felt. A LendingTree study reported that 47% of Americans in relationships say inflation has made gifts harder to afford, and 25% say they may take on debt for Valentine's Day. LendingTree's chief consumer finance analyst Matt Schulz said, "Most people want to give generously on Valentine's Day, but tough times often require sacrifice." The economic takeaway is that Valentine's Day isn't just about "how much people love" in the abstract; it's also about how households navigate discretionary spending, price increases (especially in candy, jewelry, and flowers), and the social cost of seeming to underdeliver. When budgets tighten, consumers often substitute toward smaller tokens, at-home meals, and "meaningful but inexpensive" gestures.

Ultimately, Valentine's Day in the United States is an annual reminder that emotions and economics are not opposites. The holiday's history explains why February 14 became associated with love while the marketplace explains why love shows up so predictably as candy, roses, cards, dinner reservations, and jewelry boxes. And the newest twist (spending on friends, coworkers, and pets) shows how modern Valentine's Day is less about a single relationship type and more about appreciation and the desire to mark connection in a way that others instantly understand.